Report for the United Way of Pennsylvania
REPORT | B.006.0122
January 2022
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Executive Summary
The federal earned income tax credit, or EITC, is one of the most successful anti-poverty programs in the US, lifting 6 million people (including 3 million children) over the poverty threshold each year, reducing the depth of poverty for many others, and boosting the resources of near-poor households who struggle to make ends meet. The majority of states offer a state-level EITC to working households to supplement the federal credit, typically providing a set percentage of a household’s federal benefit. Rigorous research shows that federal and state EITCs increase overall employment and earnings, particularly for single mothers, leading to better economic, social, and health outcomes for families. EITCs benefit state and local governments as well, because increased earnings yield greater tax revenue and reduced spending on public assistance.
Pennsylvania has had its own tax forgiveness program for decades, providing relief to millions of families each year, but the state remains without an EITC. Therefore, some families who struggle financially do not receive tax relief because their income level does not qualify for the current program. A coalition led by the United Way of Pennsylvania is advocating for a refundable state EITC of at least 10% and up to 25% of the federal credit, which can be phased in over time. The current state tax relief program would remain in place under this proposal and families would elect to claim the benefit that offers the greatest tax relief for their household.
This report offers an estimate for the new costs of the proposed refundable state EITC, beyond Pennsylvania’s current expenditures for its existing tax forgiveness program, as well as estimates for the benefits to the state and to families. We estimate that with a 10% state EITC, the average annual benefit per household would be $197, and Black and Hispanic families would receive a greater benefit than the state average. Approximately 10% of all households in Pennsylvania are likely to claim the state EITC and 14% would claim the current tax forgiveness benefit. Therefore, 1 in 4 Pennsylvania households would receive some form of tax relief. Our analysis demonstrates that the annual public benefits of the elective state EITC program would outweigh its costs, with an estimated ratio of approximately 7 to 1 with a 10% credit. The program would improve the quality of life for Pennsylvania’s workers and families, while offering significant returns to the state government through increased economic activity, greater tax revenue, and reduced spending on public assistance and human services programs.
Table of Contents
I. Background and Purpose of Report
II. Costs of Implementing a State EITC Program in Pennsylvania
III. Benefits of the Proposed State EITC Program
IV. Benefits for Marginalized Communities: Race and Ethnicity Groups
V. Local Impact: Pennsylvania Regional Benefits
VI. Conclusion
VII. Appendix
Recommended Citation
Osborne, C., Traish, N., Cunningham Rottas, J. (January 2022). Implementing a State Earned Income Tax Credit in Pennsylvania: A Benefit-Cost Analysis. Prenatal-to-3 Policy Impact Center, Peabody College of Education and Human Development, Vanderbilt University. https://pn3policy.org/resources/implementing-a-state-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc-in-pennsylvania.
© January 2022, Prenatal-to-3 Policy Impact Center, All Rights Reserved. The Prenatal-to-3 Policy Impact Center at Peabody College of Education and Human Development, Vanderbilt University translates research on the best public investments into state policy actions that produce results for young children and society.
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- Biehl, A. M. & Hill, B. (2018). Foster care and the earned income tax credit. Review of Economics of the Household, 16(3), 661–680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-017-9381-1; Rostad, W., Ports, K., Tang, S., & Klevens, J. (2020). Reducing the number of children entering foster care: Effects of state earned income tax credits. Child Maltreatment, 1–5. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1077559519900922.
- Biehl, A. M. & Hill, B. (2018). Foster care and the earned income tax credit. Review of Economics of the Household, 16(3), 661–680. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11150-017-9381-1
- Rostad, W., Ports, K., Tang, S., & Klevens, J. (2020). Reducing the number of children entering foster care: Effects of state earned income tax credits. Child Maltreatment, 1–5. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1077559519900922
- US Census Bureau, Population Division. (2020). Annual state resident population estimates for 6 race groups (5 race alone groups and two or more races) by age, sex, and Hispanic origin: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 – scest2019-alldata6.csv [Data Set]. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/timeseries/demo/popest/2010s-state-detail.html
- Rostad, W., Ports, K., Tang, S., & Klevens, J. (2020). Reducing the number of children entering foster care: Effects of state earned income tax credits. Child Maltreatment, 1–5. https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/1077559519900922
- Child Trends. (2021). Child welfare agency spending SFY 2018: Pennsylvania. https://www.childtrends.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/01/Pennsylvania_SFY2018-CWFS_03.03.2021.pdf
- Pennsylvania Partnerships for Children. (2019). State of child welfare 2019. https://www.papartnerships.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/04/2019-State-of-Child-Welfare-PA.pdf
- Bastian, J. & Michelmore, K. (2018). The long-term impact of the earned income tax credit on children’s education and employment outcomes. Journal of Labor Economics, 36(4), 1127-1163. http://doi.org/10.1086/697477; Maxfield, M. (2015). The effects of the earned income tax credit on child achievement and long-term educational attainment. Institute for Child Success. https://www.instituteforchildsuccess.org/publication/effects-earned-income-tax-credit-child-achievement-long-term-educational-attainment/
- Pennsylvania Dept. of Education. Cohort graduation rate. https://www.education.pa.gov/DataAndReporting/CohortGradRate/Pages/default.aspx
- Bastian, J. & Michelmore, K. (2018). The long-term impact of the earned income tax credit on children’s education and employment outcomes. Journal of Labor Economics, 36(4), 1127-1163. http://doi.org/10.1086/697477;
- Levin, H., Belfield, C., Muennig, P., Rouse, C. (2007). The costs and benefits of an excellent education for all of America’s children. Columbia University Teacher’s College. https://doi.org/10.7916/D8CF9QG9; Levin, H. & Rouse, C. (Jan. 25, 2012). The true cost of high school dropouts. New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2012/01/26/opinion/the-true-cost-of-high-school-dropouts.html
- Vining, A., & Weimer, D. (2019). The value of high school graduation in the United States: Per-person shadow price estimates for use in cost-benefit analysis. Administrative Sciences, 9(4), 1-15. http://dx.doi.org/10.3390/admsci9040081
- Braga, B., Blavin, F., & Gangopadhyaya, A. (2020). The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 190, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104249; Baughman, R. A. & Duchovny, N. (2016). State earned income tax credits and the production of child health: Insurance coverage, utilization, and health status. National Tax Journal, 69(1), 103–132. http://dx.doi.org/10.17310/ntj.2016.1.04
- Braga, B., Blavin, F., & Gangopadhyaya, A. (2020). The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 190, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104249
- Braga, B., Blavin, F., & Gangopadhyaya, A. (2020). The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 190, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104249
- Pennsylvania Partnerships for Children (2020). Press release: PA’s uninsured rate increased, 8th highest number of uninsured kids in the nation. https://www.papartnerships.org/press-release-2020-state-of-childrens-health-care-report-pas-uninsured-rate-increased-8th-highest-number-of-uninsured-kids-in-the-nation/
- Karpman, M., Coughlin, T. & Garfield, R. (April 6, 2021). Declines in uncompensated care costs for the uninsured under the ACA and implications of recent growth in the uninsured rate. Kaiser Family Foundation. https://www.kff.org/uninsured/issue-brief/declines-in-uncompensated-care-costs-for-the-uninsured-under-the-aca-and-implications-of-recent-growth-in-the-uninsured-rate/
- Coughlin, T., Holahan, J., Caswell, K., & McGrath, M. (2014). An estimated $84.9 billion in uncompensated care was provided in 2013; ACA payment cuts could challenge providers. Health Affairs. https://doi.org/10.1377/hlthaff.2013.1068
- Braga, B., Blavin, F., & Gangopadhyaya, A. (2020). The long-term effects of childhood exposure to the earned income tax credit on health outcomes. Journal of Public Economics, 190, 1-15. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jpubeco.2020.104249
- Duke University Global Health Institute. (2014). Over a lifetime, childhood obesity costs $19,000 per child. https://globalhealth.duke.edu/news/over-lifetime-childhood-obesity-costs-19000-child
- Lenhart, O. (2021). Earned income tax credit and crime. Contemporary Economic Policy, 39(3), 589-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12522
- Lenhart, O. (2021). Earned income tax credit and crime. Contemporary Economic Policy, 39(3), 589-607. https://doi.org/10.1111/coep.12522
- Stebbins, S. (2021). How the violent crime rate in Pennsylvania compares to other states. The Center Square. https://www.thecentersquare.com/pennsylvania/how-the-violent-crime-rate-in-pennsylvania-compares-to-other-states/article_af4ca856-a006-56ec-a00e-424e0c19c087.html
- McCollister, K., French, T., & Fang, H. (2010). The cost of crime to society: New crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 108(1-2), 98-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2009.12.002
- McCollister, K., French, T., & Fang, H. (2010). The cost of crime to society: New crime-specific estimates for policy and program evaluation. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, 108(1-2), 98-109. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.drugalcdep.2009.12.002
- Pennsylvania Uniform Crime Reporting System. (2020). Crime dashboard. https://www.ucr.pa.gov/PAUCRSPUBLIC/Home/Index
- Dow, W., Godøy, A., Lowenstein, C., & Reich, M. (2020). Can labor market policies reduce deaths of despair? Journal of Health Economics, 74, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102372; Lenhart, O. (2019). The effects of state-level earned income tax credits on suicides. Health Economics, 28, 1476–1482. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3948
- Dow, W., Godøy, A., Lowenstein, C., & Reich, M. (2020). Can labor market policies reduce deaths of despair? Journal of Health Economics, 74, 1-19. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhealeco.2020.102372; Lenhart, O. (2019). The effects of state-level earned income tax credits on suicides. Health Economics, 28, 1476–1482. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3948
- Lenhart, O. (2019). The effects of state-level earned income tax credits on suicides. Health Economics, 28, 1476–1482. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.3948
- Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. National Center for Health Statistics. Suicide mortality by state (2019). https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/pressroom/sosmap/suicide-mortality/suicide.htm
- US Census Bureau, Population Division. (2020). Annual state resident population estimates for 6 race groups (5 race alone groups and two or more races) by age, sex, and Hispanic origin: April 1, 2010 to July 1, 2019 – scest2019-alldata6.csv [Data Set]. https://www.census.gov/data/tables/timeseries/demo/popest/2010s-state-detail.html
- Pennsylvania Office of the Budget. (2021). Commonwealth Enacted Budget 2021-2022. https://www.budget.pa.gov/Publications%20and%20Reports/CommonwealthBudget/Documents/2021-22%20Budget%20Track%201.pdf
- See, for example, the following studies: Gangopadhyaya, A., Blavin, F., Gates, J., & Braga, B. (2020). Credit where it’s due: investigating pathways from earned income tax credit expansion to maternal mental health. Health Economics, 29, 975-991. https://doi.org/10.1002/hec.4034; Neumark, D. & Wascher, W. (2011). Does a higher minimum wage enhance the effectiveness of the earned income tax credit? Industrial and Labor Relations Review, 64(4), 712–746. https://doi.org/10.1177%2F001979391106400405; Bastian, J. & Michelmore, K. (2018). The long-term impact of the earned income tax credit on children’s education and employment outcomes. Journal of Labor Economics, 36(4), 1127-1163. http://doi.org/10.1086/697477; Komro, K. A., Markowitz, S., Livingston, M. D., & Wagenaar, A. C. (2019). Effects of state-level earned income tax credit laws on birth outcomes by race and ethnicity. Health Equity, 3(1), 61–67. https://doi.org/10.1089/heq.2018.0061; National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). A roadmap to reducing child poverty. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. https://doi.org/10.17226/25246
- United Way of Pennsylvania. About ALICE. https://www.uwp.org/alice/about-alice/
- Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy. In most states, state and local tax systems worsen inequality. https://itep.org/whopays-map/
- Polson, D., & Stier, M. (2020). Why Pennsylvania needs a state earned income tax credit (EITC). Keystone Research Center and Pennsylvania Budget and Policy Center. https://krc-pbpc.org/research_publication/report-why-pennsylvania-needs-a-state-earned-income-tax-credit-eitc/